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At first, Donald Trump gave the impression to adopt a firm position concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering threats of "significant consequences" in August if Russia's president persisted hindering ceasefire negotiations, he finally enacted considerable restrictions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action seriously impacted the Russian leader's ability to finance his aggression in the region.

However, through his newly presented comprehensive peace proposal for Ukraine, that was created by US and Russian representatives lacking Ukrainian or EU participation, Trump has clearly returned to his pro-Putin position.

Rewarding Military Action

Trump's proposal would effectively favor Putin for attacking Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's democracy in peril. Although bold proclamations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be upheld", significant aspects of the initiative in reality compromise that same autonomy. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his business experience, the former president seems to view the Ukrainian conflict as a basic land disagreement, as if ceding Russia a portion of Ukrainian soil will appease the president. Yet, Russia's invasion is not simply about controlling a damaged swath of industrial-devastated land in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's obvious goal to weaken it so it ceases to functions as an attractive example for the Russia's population of the responsible governance that Putin's deepening autocracy prevents them.

Territorial Concessions

While freezing in position the currently split Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the plan would compel the nation to surrender the whole this eastern territory. Beyond favoring the Russian Federation with land that its military have been unsuccessful to capture in exceeding a ten years of fighting, this surrender would make Ukrainian defenses critically weakened.

The area is the place of the nation's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the fortified protective structures that are a essential obstacle to enemy progress. The proposal would have Ukraine leave these defenses, leaving Russian forces a unobstructed way to Kyiv in case he eventually decide to renew the hostilities.

Military Restrictions

Additionally, in a action that would make future fighting easier for Russia, Trump would force the nation to reduce the scale of its troops from their current approximately 800,000 personnel to a limit of this lower number. Notably, Trump's initiative imposes no equivalent constraints on the invading army.

Seemingly as a gesture to Russia's attempts to depict Ukraine's democratically elected leadership as radicals, the plan asserts: "Any extremist belief system and actions must be opposed and forbidden." Seemingly to emphasize this element, it insists that "The nation will hold political contests in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. However, the proposal sets no requirement that Putin risk his dictatorship by conducting elections in his own country.

Security Guarantees

Certainly, the proposal includes the Russian Federation pledge not to "enter other states" and to "incorporate in legislation its policy of peaceful relations towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". But considering that Putin has broken comparable accords in the history – for example the 1994 agreement, in which Russia committed to respect the nation's borders in return for surrendering its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia committed to a truce and a handback of seized areas in the region to Ukrainian control – for what reason should the international community have confidence in this commitment on this occasion?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on western protection assurances. While the initiative threatens a "immediate coordinated military response" if Russia restart its aggression, and includes that "The nation will receive dependable security guarantees", the details include vague to alarming. The initiative would not just deny Ukraine Nato membership but also prevent Nato members from positioning forces on Ukraine's soil, thus blocking the peacekeeping contingent, presumptively headed by European powers, on which Ukraine had been depending to prevent Putin from replenishing his reduced military, re-equipping, and reinvading.

International Reaction

Another side agreement according to sources would offer Ukraine with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any later "significant, intentional, and ongoing aggression" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an attack threatening the stability and safety of the allied countries." This indicates a military response. However different from a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's primary protection against renewed Russian aggression – the success of the supplementary deal would depend on the commitment of Nato leaders, such as Trump, to respond militarily to Putin's attacks, a response they have {not